Basic idea behind spreads is to adjust betting events somewhere close to 50% (+100 / 2.0 / 1:1 odds). When a clear favorite plays underdog, the chances to win are far from the same. So bookmakers are adding a certain score (the spread) to the real score to make the chances close to even.

Second idea behind Asian handicaps (term usually used for soccer) is to convert events with a possible three-way outcome into two-way ones. Therefore even pushes (returned stakes) can occur. The two way results win/lose (or push/push) helps bookie to balance his risk exposure.

So how does the math of spreads work? Quite easy.

We add or subtract the spread from the score.

Example: Team A beats Team B 3:1

• In case there was a +2.5 spread for Team B and we had placed our wager on it, the +2.5 is added to the 1 so we can spredify the score into 3:3.5 and our bet on Team B +2.5 wins even when Team B loses the match.

But spreads don’t always contain halves such as 2.5 or 3.5, whole numbers or another fractions than 0.5 can occur:

• Let’s go back to the example. If we bet on Team A with the spread -2, which is possible, then we spredify the score to 1:1. It is like a draw and it means push. Stakes are returned in this case.
• The AH can also be -2.25 (means that you are betting on -2 and -2.5). If we bet on Team A -2.25 and the match ends 3:1, then our wager is split 50% for -2 and 50% for -2.5. So we lose half of the staked money and the other half is returned.

These are the total basics of spreads/AH. Bettor that understands them has many more betting options. There is a strong trend among bookies to offer more and more spreads/AH betting and moneylines (1×2 odds) are becoming, if not obsolete, then the less common type of wager in major sports.

But not only governments of individual states are to blame. Also corporations adjust the way they conduct their online business according to state borders. Partially it’s because they are scared of governments, partially because they are scared of certain customers. Betting market is affected by both. So the betting market is divided into regional zones and bookies tend to focus on a selected zone.

US sportsbooks

There is a group of sportsbooks, almost all from Caribbean area, that cater to the USA and Canada. These sportsbooks usually accept  customers from other countries, but sometimes they don’t give them such generous bonuses. Some of them offer US odds format only and their e-walets support tends to be limited as it’s very hard to use e-wallets in the USA. All in all, they are not too restrictive to players outside their focus region.

Before 2006 also sportsbooks from other regions (like Bet365) tried to penetrate the US market, but they all withdrew with UIGEA.

EURO sportsbooks

Few years ago there was a nice dream for 500M people called European Union. It ultimately failed (although many still pretend it did not, but that is not a topic for ATDHE). At that time there was a great idea of one single Euro market. Sportsbooks took it seriously and they started to target the whole EU market. For example Austrian Bwin was getting strong in Greece and Portugal, formerly Swedish Expekt was trying to aim at Western Europe, UK sportsbooks like BetFred or Ladbrokes invested (and burn money) in Eastern Europe.

But the single market was never taken too seriously. National governments never gave up tax incomes for their budgets. Now France has its own gambling licenses, so if you go for example at Bwin.fr (licensed in France and only for France) you will see different and lower odds than at Bwin.com. Many sportsbooks gave up on France. Other countries, like Germany, Poland, Bulgaria and maybe Slovakia are also introducing national online licenses.

There are still some sportsbooks that target the whole EU market, but the restrictions are growing each day. Traditional UK sportsbooks (even those licensed in Malta or Gibraltar or Channel Isles) are gradually going back to isles. Other countries are pushing international sportsbooks from the EU market. Strong players, like Bet365 or Unibet, still do well. Bwin is fading away slowly, partly because of poor management.

And yes, there are sportsbooks outside of EU that target on the EU market. Like Caribbean PinnacleSports or Asian bookies. But even those are, surprisingly, following orders from national governments. And there are new adventures coming up for bookmakers and money processors. Moneybookers/Skrill and Neteller are too big and too scared.

Australia

Australian sportsbooks were pioneer bookies that were popular both in Australia and abroad. Brands like Canbet or Centrebet used to be well known. Nowadays they fell apart. But Australians are probably the biggest gamblers ever. I have seen a chart which says that 5%+ of income is thrown to gambling by mighty Australians. Australia has strict licensing, even Betfair has AUS license and when Austrlian Open is being played, all  bettors must bet at Betfair-AUS and the KYC there is a headache for them. Overall, Australia is quite isolated betting market these days.

Asia

Asian bookies are very specific. For many years the only way how to bet with them was through an agent. Agents did both marketing and money collecting/processing. Times have changed and some sportsbooks like 188bet started with regular affiliate marketing. But many, like SBOBet, are still stuck in the old times. Apparently they know what they’re doing, because they’re all financially strong and making good profit. It’s not so difficult as Asian gamblers are really crazy. They rely on lucky numbers, horoscopes and similar crap.

Asian bookies have poor bonuses, horrible customer service, sometimes slower payouts, but excellent low vig offers including live betting, especially on soccer. I know a bookmaker from Scandinavian sportsbook and his job is simply copying their live betting lines and adding vig. Betfair traders often do the same.

Above mentioned considered, it’s not surprising that Asian sportsbooks slowly penetrate the EU market, where soccer is a big thing. Asian bookies went that far that these days they offer live betting on local European soccer divisions. I have noticed even floorball live! So far, they don’t care about regulations too much, but I expect that soon they will also be affected by the growing pressure..

The fact is that a US citizen can still gamble online as long as bookies accept him and there is no possibility to go to jail because for sending money to a sportsbook. Well, at least if the bettor is not absolutely stupid and doesn’t go to FBI himself. However, in current conditions it is not possible for bookies to guarantee that all the transactions will be smooth. There are problems with money processors and sportsbooks’ money often get stuck somewhere, but usually it just means delayed payouts. Also your transaction TO a sportsbook can be refused by your bank, but the money is not stolen.

The real risk associated with the war on gambling is that the gambling companies might simply go bankrupt. They loose many customers, they struggle with delayed transactions and even their domain addresses could be seized. For example now, in August /2011, the situation with Full Tilt Poker is a pain in the ass and none of their customers know if they will ever get paid. Partly because of the US government action.

So if you are a US bettor, you don’t need to start betting locally. Yes, the best bookmakers, like PinnacleSports, are no more an option. Some, like Wsex, went under. You can’t use e-wallets like Neteller anymore. But there are still ways how to bet online. Many US bettors moved their bank accounts to Canada or offshore for example. If you want to keep betting from within the USA you just have to be aware of the risks and you are stuck with only a handful of sportsbooks. Which are they? The Greek, BetJamaica, 5Dimes, Bodog, Bookmaker/BetDsi and Heritage to mention the top ones. There’s something like a 99% chance that they will safely make it until Superbowl and further. For the 1% chance that things go other way keep reading this blog or other betting forums.

edit: BetJamaica just went under TheGreek

Generally parlays are popular types of bets among bookmakers as the players are in disadvantage here. There are two reasons for it:

1. Moneymanagement. When a bettor is hoping to hit a parlay with high odds like 1:1000, he cannot simply expect to hit the parlay at least once in 1000 bets. This is a trick to confuse our brain. Yes, there could be perhaps a 50% chance that such a parlay is hit up to 1000 bets… but what if it is not? His bankroll is lost. Game over. The conclusion is that parlay players must have a really huge bankroll to justify this kind of bets from money management point of view. Ironically enough, it’s usually people who are almost broke who are playing parlays. Usually in hope that by staking the little money they have left they will make a fortune and make their dreams come true. Parlays usually mean a wrong path for a bettor and easy money for a bookie.
2. Value. Most people don’t have a clue about value. They are not betting value bets. They don’t see the difference between 2.0 / +100 and 1.91 / -110. Let’s do the math. If a bettor places a single bet for an event like -110 / 1.91 and the actual chance of this event is 50%, he is losing value. He gets back on average only 0.91 of his stake. With parlays it’s even worse. With a parlay of two such events, he gets back only 0.88 of his stake [(1.91 x 1.91)-1]/[(2.0 x 2.0)-1]=0.88. This means that he will lose faster and redeposit sooner. His children will starve more and his wife will not buy a real Luis Vuitton bag but only a fake one.

So what is the conclusion? Think twice if you really must bet parlays. There are reasons why to bet parlays, but it is betting university or at least high school. Parlays could be used to circumvent bookie’s limits, to mine maximum value from valuebets, to mask something or for correlated bets. All those cases will be explained later here on the blog. Even players who know how to make parlays work beter for them face the moneymanagement problem, so basically every parlay is somehow uncertain business.

For most bettors parleys are probably the worst betting strategy. Some people say, “Yeah, it’s probably right, but betting parlays is so much fun.” Is it fun to burn your money? And is it fun to burn them using gasoline from your car in the middle of a desert?

The technical development allowed bookmakers to process a much higher volume of transactions at once and also cut their transaction costs. This enabled them to reduce their vig/margin. These days even a lousy bettor who knows the basics of money management doesn’t go under so easily. Instead of 1.8 or -125 line he gets 1.95 / -105 line and therefore makes more money.

But the real breakthrough came with live betting. Live betting or in-game betting means that you can place your wagers during the match. You can observe the game and bet at the same time from your smartphone for example. If you have a really good knowledge of the playing teams, live betting is the way how to make money. You can watch the game and notice something that the market didn’t include into the odds.

The pioneer of live betting was Wsex.com. Today they are broke, because they managed to make a few fatal business mistakes. DO NOT bet at Wsex now! They don’t pay their players. They never changed their original old-school live betting system, that was based on “share pricing” (= odds like percents) and annoyed many bettors. On the top of that they neglected their marketing. Today an online bookie simply can’t afford to ignore affiliates. These things that might not seem so important turned out to be vital in the upcoming severe competition.

Gradually the big players like Bwin and Betfair joined in and popularized live bets. Bwin offers wide range of sports, so does Betfair, where big money spins. What differs is that Betfair is a betting exchange, not a bookie, so people bet against each other. The problem with Bwin is their shitty customer service, fast limitation of winners and obvious blunders such as voiding winning bets. I can’t recommend them. Betfair is OK, but their fees are a rip off. Plus it’s extremely hard to compete against the pure market. However, they are unbeatable for live tennis.

So, for non-US players the best choice to start with is Bet365, I think. Gradually you can add some more sportsbooks. Nowadays almost all of them offer some kind of highly addictive live betting, but Bet365 is unbeatable with the range of matches on offer.

US players can give a shot to another exchange that specializes in the US sports: Matchbook. Or you can try Bodog that sometimes offers quite bizarre live bets. Also with 5Dimes you can bet live on some matches. Generally, in the USA live betting is not so popular. On the other hand, 2nd half betting is very popular, which is a case of live betting.

Finding value sounds easy, but actually it’s a skill that takes a long time to acquire. There will be more to read on value in sports betting on the blog. Anyhow, one thing is clear. You can’t find value, if you have low odds. Low odds are the same thing as high price. You can afford to pay 2 bucks for a beer in a restaurant, while the same beer costs a dollar in a supermarket. But you can’t do the same mistake in betting.

Now try to guess what kind of profit do pro bettors make? They certainly don’t win every stake they make. Nobody makes 100% profit. Neither 50% nor 20%. Actually no one makes net profit of 10% in a long term run (after thousands of bets). For me it is normal to have 2-3% yield. Every thousand I stake makes 20-30$ for me. On average! There are big ups and downs during the season.

Now consider odds like +100 (or 2.0 or 1:1) as an example. The implied chance [derived from odds] that this event happens is about 50%. Many people actually don’t care if the odds of their stake are -105 (1.95 or 19/20) or -110 (1.91 or 9/10). The difference is simply too small. We don’t care if a can of beer costs 2$, 1.95$ or 1.91$. But once you want to take betting seriously you have to care. The percentage difference of such a small variability in odds is bigger than the winning margin of the best bettors!

In other words: ignoring the best odds on the market means losing.

See yourself as an investor, the better odds you get for your stake, the higher profit you get.

How to get the best odds or anything close to them? Choosing the right bookie is vital here. You need to go with the one that has the best price = the best odds for the stake you want to place.

It is obvious that you will not always find the best odds on the market with the same bookie. So here comes the successful bettors golden rule: the more sportsbooks you are using, the better chances you have. Also it’s good to diversify your investments a bit. It happened many times that bookies were broke. It’s nice not to lose your whole bank.